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How could 3G revenues
be calculated?
by
Qmars Safikhani
3G mobile
revenue drivers will revolutionise the forecasting
process for mobile growth. Current forecasts that
predict the revenue based on the traditional ARPU
calculation, that is currently applied to second-generation
licenses will not be sustainable.
The main source of revenue for the
second-generation mobile services are voice and SMS.
SMS already is driving nearly 10% of revenue for some
European wireless operator. In addition customised
infotainment, location-based services, multimedia
messaging services, mobile Internet access, mobile
intranet/extranet, and rich voice technology will
all be part of new revenue streams for 3G, and there
will no doubt be other, more innovative services to
follow.
As the industry structure
evolves, no definitive business models have yet been
established for 3G, and the role of the services providers
will have to change. Current service providers are
only providing voice-only applications to the consumers,
but in the future they will manage the direct relationship
between the consumer and multiple partners providing
numerous applications. These multiple partners will
require revenue shares as appropriate. In consequence
we must consider the necessity of a different framework
to calculate new service revenues for service providers.
According to the nature of 3G-revenue streams, we
believe the diversification of the market by consumers
and businesses, plus price discrimination, will help
to establish a framework and timescale for growing
the future revenues.
According to our forecasts, the
main source of revenue among 3G services would be
classified as follow:
- Simple voice
- Customised infotainment
- Mobile Intranet/ Extranet Access
This forecasting
reflects the reality of deployment of those services
across the whole industry. For example, Nokia are
already showing the first signs of the next evolution
of customised infotainment, by shipping colour-screen
mobile phone with an in-built digital camera, taking
the first steps toward increasing the volume of revenue
from customised infotainment.
The speed of adoption (therefore
generating revenue) depends on the evolution of services
and cost. Teleconomy is currently employing a number
of proprietary methodologies to predict future trends
in the mobile industry with the greatest accuracy,
within the larger context of overall telecom market
revenues. For further information about these statistics,
please email
us here
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